Thursday, October 05, 2006

If the Democrats don't win, they should go the way of the Whigs

That is what a couple conservatives have said, including today's George Will op-ed.

I tend to agree, but it may be that the deck remains sufficiently stacked that even a landslide vote for Democrats doesn't result in a shift in the House or Senate.

Republicans still have whopping big financial advantages, as well as a big advantage in gerrymandering. Few districts are competitive, and I suspect the GOP has better statisticians on its payroll than the Democrats. Then there are the places like Texas, where Tom Delay is history, but the districts he carved out are not.

I don't see a Zogby poll on this subject now, but I recall seeing that less than a third of the population wants a GOP majority in the House, and a strong plurality favors a Democratic majority in the House and Senate. It may be that the GOP can retain power in spite of the will of the people agains them.

If that happens, maybe the Democrats should go the way of the Whigs, but whoever follows them better have a good statistician working for them.


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